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Oil market battles persistent headwinds

2025 saw oil prices fluctuate between highs of US$81.86 (Brent) and US$78.99 (WTI) and lows of US$59.41 and US$55.56, respectively, as the energy market served as a barometer of global political and trade tensions.

“Throughout the year, prices have continued the downtrend they began in April (2024) as OPEC+ continued to hike output and China’s economy continued to struggle under the weight of a flailing property sector, downbeat consumer confidence, overindebted local governments and flagging external demand,” he added.

While the oil market isn’t new to volatility, this year proved different as US President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs infused global uncertainty into the energy market.

“We can see that Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs pushed prices down to a level from which they’ve not recovered from, barring a spike in June as a result of the 12 day Iran-Israel war,” said Cunningham.

“Since then, Brent crude oil prices have continued to fall as OPEC+ caught the market off guard with its aggressive output hikes, which were designed to win back market share from non-cartel producers.’

Demand growth, underinvestment reshape oil outlook

Meanwhile, OPEC is approaching full production capacity, with Saudi Arabia being the main exception.

“Even though people are talking about lots of supply, demand is still growing,” Schachter said, noting that global oil demand rose roughly 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to increase by about 1.2 million in 2026.

New supply additions are limited, he explained, mentioning Guyana’s offshore discoveries by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), some output from Brazil and minor contributions from Canada.

“Most basins are tired, and not enough money is being spent to bring on production,” Schachter said, predicting that global inventory drawdowns in 2026 will support higher prices.

Despite lack of investment at the exploration level, FocusEconomics panelists are forecasting a rise in both oil and gas supply in 2026 fueled by output growth at existing operations.

Cunningham pointed to organizations like the EIA and International Energy Agency (IEA), which “hiked their forecasts in recent months in response to OPEC+ increasing output unexpectedly fast and the recent surge in demand for US LNG.”

“The real question is not if oil and gas production will increase, but by how much,” said Cunningham.

A ramp up could be curtailed by geopolitical disruptions, he went on to note.

“Recent frictions between members of the OPEC+ cartel will persist, with Russia likely to favor lower production levels given US sanctions and countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates eager to push production higher given their excess capacity and desire to win back market share from non-OPEC+ producers,” he said.

“Moreover, countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq continue to overshoot their quotas, and in late 2023 Angola left the cartel due to disputes over its allowed production level.”

Transport and petrochemicals driving oil demand

Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2026, driven primarily by transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.

Gasoline is projected to lead the increase, supported by recovering air travel and road mobility, while diesel and other products also contribute. Non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, will account for most of the growth, with expanding petrochemical capacity in major economies boosting crude-derived feedstock demand.

Overall, transport and industrial activity remain the key engines behind the expected rise in oil consumption.

“Our panelists see world oil production rising 1.1 percent in 2026 as non-OPEC+ countries such as Guyana and the US hike output,” said FocusEconomics’ Cunningham.

LNG expansion fuels gas growth

Similar to the trajectory for oil, natural gas demand is expected to rise in 2026 as global consumption rebounds and LNG exports expand sharply. “The IEA (is) estimating growth at around 2 percent with consumption at an all-time high on higher demand in the industrial and electricity sectors,” said Cunningham.

Rising LNG supply — with new export capacity coming online in the US, Canada and Qatar — is projected to support stronger import growth, particularly in Asia, where demand is expected to rebound after a 2025 slowdown.

“Asia is hungry for LNG; the IEA estimates the region’s natural gas demand will rise over 4 percent in 2026, with LNG imports up by 10 percent,” the expert said. Increased use of natural gas in power generation and industrial sectors will also contribute to growth, helping push global gas demand toward a new peak next year.

“Of course, these forecasts could change quickly if the world economy or the oil and gas sector is subject to further shocks, which is why we recommend regularly checking the latest forecasts that are available,” Cunningham added.

Further ahead, Schachter argued that rising global power needs will underpin long-term demand for natural gas, particularly as alternatives struggle to scale. Aging power grids are another constraint. Much of the world’s electricity infrastructure has not been meaningfully upgraded, and expanding capacity will require major investment in transmission — driving demand for copper, steel and aluminum alongside new generation.

Against that backdrop, Schachter sees LNG as central to meeting near- and medium-term power needs.

“The demand for LNG is the story,” he said, adding that natural gas is increasingly viewed not as a temporary transition fuel, but as “the most efficient, from a climate and environmental point of view.”

He also highlighted Canada’s advantage as producers invest heavily in emissions-reduction technologies, including methane mitigation. That positioning could make Canadian LNG more attractive to import-dependent nations such as Japan and South Korea.

While new supply from Qatar and the US will add capacity, Schachter cautioned that LNG development is rarely linear, pointing to Canada’s decades-long path to its first operating export terminal. Despite inevitable delays and short-term imbalances, he said the long-term outlook remains clear: “The industry’s fundamentals are very, very positive.”

Cunningham also pointed to increased output from the US and Qatar as key areas to watch in 2026.

“The big Qatari and US LNG projects will help natural gas prices converge globally — our Consensus Forecast is for the percentage difference between US gas prices (which tend to be lower due to huge domestic production) and those in Asia and Europe to ease to the lowest level since 2020, the year the pandemic sent gas demand plummeting,” said Cunningham, adding, “In short, record US LNG shipments will send up prices at home and lower them abroad.”

Cunningham went on to explain that unlike oil, in the natural gas market there tends to be more price divergence between regions as natural gas is harder to transport over large distances. Oil can be poured into a barrel and shipped, whereas natural gas first needs to be liquified if it’s to be sent overseas. Greater LNG capacity will help bridge this gap.

Oil and gas price forecast for 2026

Schachter expects WTI to average over US$70 in 2026, with Brent around US$73 to US$74.

He anticipates some volatility early in the new year, saying that in Q1 he expects trading to be “still sloppy between US$56 and US$66,” before prices rise in Q2 to US$62 to US$72. From there, he sees prices reaching US$68 to US$78 in the year’s third quarter as inventories tighten and market fundamentals assert themselves.

“People think we’re going back to US$80 today. US$58 oil — it ain’t going to US$80. But when the industry is in rational supply and demand, prices climb, especially when inventories draw down quickly,” Schachter said, recalling the 2008 peak in oil prices near US$147 during extreme supply shortages.

Looking at the year ahead, FocusEconomics expects the trends of 2025 to continue.

“Average Brent crude oil prices will ease further to a post-pandemic low, while US natural gas prices will increase to the highest average level since 2014 barring 2022’s Russia-Ukraine-war-driven spike,” said Cunningham.

“OPEC+ is set to continue raising output — after a pause in Q1 2026 — and the global economy should slow as the boost from export front-loading ahead of US tariff wanes.”

The clean AI investment surge

Meanwhile, startups are racing to make infrastructure smarter and faster to build with the help of AI.

Emerald AI, which uses smart software to manage a cleaner, more flexible grid and ease data center strain, announced its first commercial deployment alongside US$18 million in new seed funding, while Infravision, a company that uses drones to string transmission lines more efficiently, raised US$91 million in a Series B round to scale globally.

AI is also accelerating cleantech breakthroughs, as highlighted by the CleanAI Initiative’s report on AI’s growing role in climate solutions. It shows energy and power technologies garnered more than half of total clean AI investments.

The sector is seen as a critical, multi-layered investment opportunity tied to sustainability and technology leadership in multitrillion-dollar markets; however, key challenges to its growth include the high energy consumption of AI technologies themselves and a lack of combined expertise in both AI and climate science.

Billions in private investment have helped sustain the cleantech sector.

Experts Jason Bordoff and Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh argue that corporate funding will help boost energy transition, citing power purchase agreements and other financial commitments by Big Tech companies such as Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

NextEra Energy’s (NYSE:NEE) landmark Q4 deals with Alphabet and Meta to power their AI data centers are prime examples of this trend. The Florida-based company will supply clean energy capacity through 11 power purchase and two energy storage deals, with projects expected to become operational between 2026 and 2028. NextEra is also collaborating with Google Cloud to develop three US data center campuses.

However, this transformative period carries significant risks: if the AI boom proves to be a bubble that bursts, energy investment could swiftly vanish, leading to billions in stranded assets.

As China solidifies its dominance in clean energy manufacturing, the question remains whether the US administration’s efforts to expand nuclear and geothermal power can successfully challenge China’s current leadership, as Beijing also accelerates its own nuclear buildout and eyes global reactor exports.

Nuclear and geothermal gaining traction

Nuclear and geothermal are gaining traction as promising solutions for AI and data center reliability in 2026, attracting enterprise and policy support as other clean energy initiatives and incentives are pulled back.

The Department of Energy formally released its Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap in Q4, outlining a strategy to accelerate commercial fusion by the mid-2030s. Separately, the department announced it will award up to US$800 million in cost-shared funding to advance small modular reactor projects.

Startups are accelerating too, with Antares raising US$96 million for mid-2026 microreactor tests, while Radiant Nuclear is planning a US$280 million factory in Tennessee targeting 2028 deliveries. Under the leadership of CEO Bob Mumgaard, Commonwealth Fusion Systems is transitioning fusion energy from the realm of research to practical power generation. The company is currently building sites for its commercial fusion plants and is utilizing a partnership with Google DeepMind, focused on AI, to speed up the development of its fusion technology.

Geothermal is scaling, too, with some investors turning their attention to even more ambitious high-temperature projects. Mazama Energy, a startup backed by billionaire businessman Vinod Khosla, is developing a geothermal project at Newberry, one of the largest and most active volcanoes. If successful, this could be a top global geothermal site, supplying electricity to local homes and businesses starting next year.

Endeavors like these are viewed by enthusiasts as a potential catalyst for a new era of geothermal power.

“Geothermal has been mostly inconsequential,” Khosla told the Washington Post.

“To do consequential geothermal that matters at the scale of tens or hundreds of gigawatts for the country, and many times that globally, you really need to solve these high temperatures.”

Another notable example is Zanskar Geothermal and Minerals, which precisely located a deep geothermal reservoir using AI, effectively lowering the exploration and drilling costs of its Big Blind geothermal system. The company is seeking permits to develop Big Blind, aiming to supply power by the end of the decade.

EV localization and self-driving options

Looking ahead, robotaxis are gaining traction in the EV market, with growing fleets operating in multiple cities.

Alphabet’s Waymo is the most aggressive company in this space, currently offering driverless rides in five cities with plans to expand in 2026. Other key players are actively engaged in various testing stages.

Both Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) are incorporating Waymo and other robotaxi services into their platforms, and Uber is adding robotaxis to its platform in Dallas, Texas, through a partnership with Avride, using autonomous Hyundai (KRX:005380,OTC Pink:HYMTF) Ioniq 5s that will initially include a safety operator.

Amazon’s self-driving robotaxi subsidiary, Zoox, expects to start charging passengers for rides in Las Vegas in early 2026, with paid rides in the San Francisco Bay Area coming later next year; however, the move depends on obtaining federal regulatory and state approvals. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), led by CEO Elon Musk, is operating smaller, monitored robotaxi fleets in Austin and San Francisco, with Phoenix anticipated to be the next market for a major expansion.

Meanwhile, self-driving truck startup Waabi, a Canadian company with backing from Uber and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), launched its new autonomous truck developed with Volvo (STO:VOLV-A,OTC Pink:VLVCY).

Investor takeaway

As the cleantech market navigates this transformative period, its long-term success will hinge on strategic investments that successfully balance immense AI energy demands with the imperative of avoiding a stranded-asset bubble.

Sector participants will also need to track country-level developments. In the US, Senator Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) energy plan prioritizes affordability over climate primacy, calling for reinstated clean tax credits, small modular reactor R&D funding, transmission exemptions and zero-carbon sources alongside oil/gas with clean timelines.

Meanwhile, Canada’s 2025 budget includes a C$2 billion cleantech fund, and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism pressures imports, favoring compliant North American projects that blend reliability with decarbonization.

1. Trump Admin Pushes for Uranium Stockpile Boost to Secure Nuclear Power Future

Publish date: September 16, 2025

In September, the Trump administration zeroed in on its plan to reduce uranium reliance on Russia.

A report by Bloomberg outlined that Russia still accounts for approximately a quarter of the fuel used in America’s 94 nuclear reactors, which generate roughly 20 percent of the nation’s electricity.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that the Department of Energy was working to reduce that dependence by rebuilding domestic uranium and enrichment supply chains.

The concept of a federal uranium reserve dates back to 2020, when the first Trump administration sought US$150 million to begin direct purchases from US producers, though Congress approved only half the amount.

Supply concerns sharpened after Russia briefly restricted uranium exports to the US in late 2024, underscoring Washington’s exposure to geopolitical risks.

A law signed in May 2024 requires US utilities to phase out Russian uranium by 2028, with future stockpile levels expected to rise in line with new reactor construction, including small modular reactors.

“We’re moving to a place — and we’re not there yet — to no longer use Russian enriched uranium,” Wright said, adding that the US needs significantly more domestic uranium and enrichment capacity.

2. China Achieves World’s First Thorium-to-Uranium Conversion

Publish date: November 6, 2025

China marked a milestone in 2025 by converting thorium into uranium inside a working molten salt reactor.

The experimental thorium molten salt reactor, developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics in the Gobi Desert, is the first in the world to demonstrate stable thorium-based fission.

The reactor has been operating since reaching first criticality in October 2023 and has now produced data confirming the conversion of thorium-232 into uranium-233, a fissile material capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction.

Unlike conventional reactors that use solid uranium fuel rods, the system relies on liquid fuel dissolved in molten fluoride salt, allowing continuous refueling and stable heat generation without shutting down operations.

3. Uranium Energy’s Sweetwater Project Fast Tracked Under Trump Initiative

Publish date: August 6, 2025

In August, Uranium Energy’s (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) Sweetwater uranium complex in Wyoming was designated for expedited permitting under the Trump administration’s FAST-41 initiative. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to revitalize the US nuclear fuel supply chain and reduce reliance on imports from geopolitical rivals.

The Sweetwater complex, located in Wyoming’s Great Divide Basin, is anchored by a fully licensed conventional uranium mill with a capacity of 3,000 metric tons per day and annual output of 4.1 million pounds.

The site previously included several permitted mines — Sweetwater (Red Desert), Big Eagle and Jackpot (Green Mountain) — and will now be evaluated for in-situ recovery mining, a lower-impact extraction technique.

The new permitting push will allow the company to modify existing approvals to incorporate in-situ recovery capabilities both within and beyond the current mine boundary, including on adjacent federal lands.

Sweetwater is the second uranium project to receive fast-track treatment under the policy, following Anfield Energy’s (TSXV:AEC,NASDAQ:AEC) Velvet-Wood project in Utah, which received the status in May.

4. Denison Mines Moves Closer to Federal Approval for Phoenix ISR Uranium Project

Publish date: February 28, 2025

In February, Denison Mines (TSX:DML,NYSEAMERICAN:DNN) announced that the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) had scheduled public hearings for its Wheeler River uranium project in Saskatchewan.

The hearings were scheduled for October 8 and December 8 to 12, and according to the company would represent the final stage in the federal environmental assessment process. Denison holds an effective 95 percent interest in Wheeler River, the largest undeveloped uranium project in the Eastern Athabasca Basin. If approved, the company expects to begin site preparation and construction for its Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium project in early 2026.

In its Q3 report, released on November 6, Denison said the first part of the hearing was complete, and that it was expecting a decision from the CNSC in early 2026 after part two of the hearing.

5. Western Australia Reviews Uranium Mining Ban as Nuclear Energy Investment Grows

Publish date: October 2, 2025

Possibly the biggest uranium news in Australia in 2025 was Western Australia’s move to consider lifting its ban on new uranium licenses. In October, ahead of an energy-focused trade mission to China and Japan, Premier Roger Cook signaled the policy might be under review as part of broader strategic development considerations.

China, Western Australia’s largest trading partner, accounts for more than half of the state’s exports.

While the state’s three existing uranium mines continue to operate under previously approved permits, no new developments have been allowed since the ban was put in place in 2017. Cook emphasized that Western Australia intends to respect legal mining leases, while exploring future opportunities.

He also stressed that any change to the uranium policy would likely depend on a “significant shift” in global markets, while the state continues to monitor existing permit holders and potential future projects.