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Weak US dollar, low interest rates price positive for gold

The gold price has an inverse relationship with the US dollar and real interest rates. Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s US$4,500 gold forecast for mid-2026 is predicated on a weaker dollar and lower rates.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar, and Trump has been pressuring the US Federal Reserve to drop rates since taking office. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term due to end next year, market watchers are anticipating that a more dovish Fed head will take the helm. This means that more rate cuts are likely on the table for 2026.

A softer dollar and a low rate environment would provide foundational support for further gold price gains. The resulting inflation is expected to push the Fed toward quantitative easing (QE), or the purchasing of government bonds to increase money supply and lower long-term rates, which would further bolster the yellow metal’s appeal.

At its October policy meeting, the Fed stated that its quantitative tightening activities (allowing bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds) would end on December 1.

“Frankly … interest expense for the federal government is running at US$1.2 trillion a year (and) the budget deficit is US$1.8 trillion a year, so the interest is really contributing to the deficit,” he said. “The US federal government really needs lower rates, or else interest is going to continue to consume a big piece of their revenues.”

Lepard believes investors are keenly aware that lower rates are coming, which naturally means more inflation. This realization is enhancing gold’s investment appeal.

Gold price forecasts for 2026

Heading into 2026, Fed monetary policy changes are likely to give gold another boost to the upside.

“As we move through the year, as the Federal Reserve transitions to QE and maybe yield curve control and money printing, the (precious) metals themselves will catch another leg up,” said Lepard.

“Gold will go through US$4,500 toward US$5,000, silver will go to US$60 or US$70 and (gold and silver) stocks will all go up another 30 percent pretty easily, and then maybe more over the next 12 months,’ he added.

Global financial services provider B2PRIME Group also sees gold’s average price in 2026 at around US$4,500 as US debt challenges and possible Fed rate cuts continue to bolster the value of the precious metal.

Overall, most analysts’ gold price predictions for the upcoming year are in the US$4,500 to US$5,000 range.

Metals Focus is forecasting an annual average high of US$4,560 in 2026, with gold potentially reaching a record US$4,850 in the fourth quarter. The firm sees these gains materializing despite a projected gold surplus of 41.9 million ounces in 2026, up 28 percent year-on-year; that would take mine production to another record high in 2026.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is predicting that gold could reach as high as US$4,900 next year on increased central bank buying and anticipated inflation-causing interest rate cuts by the Fed.

For its part, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) sees the yellow metal breaching US$5,000 in 2026 on growing deficit spending in the US and Trump’s ‘unorthodox macro policies.’

Investor takeaway

Ongoing uncertainty from trade tensions, a potential market correction in the AI sector, US debt challenges and anticipated shifts in Fed policy have fueled strong investment demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Those demand drivers are not going away in 2026; in fact, they are likely to provide further foundational support that could propel the gold price to new record highs.

Copper price in Q4

Experts have widely predicted a copper supply deficit over the last few years.

On the demand side, industrial usage tied to the energy transition is rising, and that’s on top of high copper consumption due to increasing rates of urbanization in the Global South.

Further consternating the market is a concerning supply situation. First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine, which previously contributed approximately 1 percent of global copper supply, has been on care and maintenance since the Panamanian government ordered its closure at the end of 2023.

More recently, in September, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) announced the temporary closure of its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to an ingress of 800,000 metric tons of wet material into the main Grasberg block cave (GBC), killing seven workers. The company has launched an investigation and adjusted its annual guidance.

Even though both operations are expected to return to full production, the process will take time.

In September, Panama said it would initiate an environmental and social audit of Cobre Panama by the end of 2025, with the mine to begin production in early 2026. Tied to the restart will be a significant change to the contract under which First Quantum had previously been operating, ensuring state ownership of the land and its resources.

Meanwhile, Freeport said that operations will resume at the unaffected Big Gossan and Deep Mill Level Zone mines before the end of 2025, but extraction at the GBC won’t restart until the second quarter of 2026. Freeport also noted that it isn’t expecting the GBC to return to full production until 2027.

Once restarted, the mines will be a welcome relief to an overburdened copper market, but in their closed state, their lack of contribution is significantly shifting the supply situation.

In an October report, the International Copper Study Group predicted a 178,000 metric ton global refined copper surplus for 2025, saying it would shift to a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026.

However, by the end of November, the situation had evolved, with the group noting a smaller refined copper surplus of about 94,000 metric tons through the first nine months of 2025.

With just one month left in the year, the market looks to be approaching a deficit sooner than expected.

The November release outlines growing use of refined copper, which rose 5.5 percent during the first nine months of 2025; refined copper output rose just 4.3 percent, while mining production increased 2.2 percent.

One moderating factor for supply/demand could be a soft macroeconomic environment, particularly in the US.

“US demand from construction and manufacturing is expected to remain steady but not robust, as policy headwinds for renewables and EVs, elevated input costs, and project delays persist,’ she said.

‘Most market watchers anticipated continued arbitrage opportunities between US and global benchmarks with periodic local price spikes as trade policies evolve.’

How did copper perform for the rest of the year?

Copper price, January 1 to December 3, 2025.

Copper price in Q1

The copper price rose sharply in the first quarter amid strong supply and demand fundamentals.

These included supply chain disruptions following a major power outage in Chile at the end of February, which caused a temporary shutdown at BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.

Prices also saw major momentum amid tariff threats, as US President Donald Trump made several significant trade policy announcements at the start of his second term in office.

Among them was the signing of an executive order at the end of February that invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and initiated a national security investigation into the impacts of copper imports into the US.

Although tariffs wouldn’t be applied to copper until Q3, the move still prompted traders to stockpile refined copper at Chicago Mercantile Exchange warehouses to get ahead of any potential tariffs.

Copper price in Q2

Volatility was the story in Q2, as markets were affected by a widening supply deficit and the threat of US tariffs.

The start of the quarter saw markets plummet following Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement, which applied a baseline 10 percent tariff to all imports into the US, with additional retaliatory tariffs following shortly after.

Additionally, the US and China butted heads and initiated a tariff war that saw Chinese goods entering the US hit with 145 percent tariffs; US goods entering China were levied with 125 percent tariffs.

The tariffs caused a great deal of uncertainty to creep into the US bond market, pushing yields on 10 year treasuries up sharply as investors began dumping these assets. The move sparked fears of an imminent recession, prompting broad selloffs across commodities and equity markets.

Copper price in Q3

The third quarter was also defined by high volatility, with copper prices in the US surging as traders sought to import large volumes of the metal before the implementation of Section 232 tariffs.

The imports caused a significant disparity between the US and international markets, with premiums on the Comex rising to 30 percent above those at the London Metal Exchange. Putting that disconnect into context, Jacob White, exchange-traded fund product manager at Sprott Asset Management, explained that a copper short squeeze on the Comex in 2024 pushed premiums to a high of 8 percent. The London Metal Exchange and Comex are typically much closer to par, with an average differential of 0.5 percent over the past five years.

Ultimately, refined copper was exempted for the time being, with tariffs set to be phased in at 15 percent in 2027 and 30 percent in 2028. The move pulled the rug out from under traders, causing the US prices to collapse.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$92,758.95, up by 4.1 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 3, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

After Bitcoin stared the week with its largest single-day decline in a month, it rallied about 6.6 percent in 24 hours to reclaim US$93,000. This now marks Bitcoin’s highest intraday level in more than two weeks.

Despite the cryptocurrency’s rebound, analysts are still urging caution and advising investors to await clearer macro signals before fully re-entering higher-risk assets.

Ether (ETH) also regained ground and is currently priced at US$3,051.34, up 7.1 percent over 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.19, an increase of 4.6 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$142.17, up by 6.6 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Strategy faces possible removal from MSCI indexes

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is in discussions with index provider MSCI as the company thinks about removing Strategy from major stock indexes, according to Reuters.

MSCI is considering cutting companies whose business model is to buy crypto. Strategy currently holds about 650,000 BTC and has relied on new debt and equity issuance to add to its holdings.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) estimates a removal could trigger up to US$8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers follow suit. Saylor said the company is participating in MSCI’s review process, but questioned the scale of possible selling projected by JPMorgan. A verdict is expected by January 15 of next year.

Sony partner launches stablecoin for Soneium

Startale Group has launched USDSC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar that is designed to serve as the default settlement currency on Sony Group’s (NYSE:SONY,TSE:6758) Soneium blockchain.

According to a Decrypt report, the launch includes a new rewards program called STAR Points that is geared at encouraging user activity across payments, liquidity supply and app interaction. Soneium went live earlier this year following a test phase that drew 14 million users and processed 50 million transactions.

Startale CEO Sota Watanabe said USDSC aims to support payments and yield generation across the network’s creator-focused ecosystem. Stablecoin infrastructure firm M0 is providing backend support for issuance and liquidity.

A waitlist for the Startale app is open to users seeking early access to USDSC features and rewards.

SEC blocks rollout of high-leverage ETFs

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has halted the approval process for multiple ultra-leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), citing concerns about investor risk.

Warning letters were sent to nine issuers, including Direxion, ProShares and Tidal, affecting products designed to offer more than 2x exposure to equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

The SEC said the proposals exceed regulatory limits on allowable leverage and rely on benchmark definitions that may fail to reflect true market volatility. Some of the planned funds target exposure to highly volatile assets. No 3x or 5x single-stock ETFs currently exist in the US due to existing restrictions.

Leveraged ETF trading has surged since 2020, with total assets rising to around US$162 billion.

Investor Insight

Goldgroup offers investors a rare opportunity to participate in the rapid buildout of a multi-asset gold producer in Mexico, with near-term production growth at the operating Cerro Prieto mine and the addition of two fully owned, high-impact assets – Pinos and San Francisco – positioning the company for substantial scale, re-rating potential and strong leverage to gold.

Overview

Goldgroup Mining (TSXV:GGA,OTC:GGAZF) is a Canadian gold company building a portfolio of high-quality producing and development assets across Mexico, one of the world’s premier mining jurisdictions. With two 100 percent owned gold projects – Cerro Prieto and Pinos – and the acquisition of 100 percent of the San Francisco mine, Goldgroup is positioned for rapid, disciplined production growth.

The company’s strategy is straightforward: optimize and expand production at its flagship Cerro Prieto mine, advance Pinos toward a production decision, and bring the large-scale San Francisco mine back online. Combined, these projects outline a defined path to more than 100,000 ounces of annual production, with further upside from exploration, resource expansion and future acquisitions.

Goldgroup is guided by an experienced leadership team with deep expertise in building and optimizing mines in Mexico. The company benefits from strong financial support from the Calu Group and founders of Luca Mining, with proven track records of value creation through mine development, operational turnarounds and strategic M&A.

Company Highlights

• Two operating or near-term production gold assets in Mexico, 100-percent-owned and fully permitted.
• Cerro Prieto expansion completed, increasing from ~12,500 oz/year to 30,000+ oz/year during 2026 and beyond, including tailings re-processing.
• Its second asset, Pinos, is a fully permitted high-grade underground development project with historical resources and +90 percent metallurgical recoveries.
• San Francisco acquisition in progress, a past producer capable of ~40,000 oz/year with significant exploration upside.
• Aggressive M&A strategy aimed at fast-tracking Goldgroup into the mid-tier producer category with advanced due diligence nearing completion. .
• Backed by the Calu Group and the founders of Luca Mining, bringing extensive operational and financing expertise in Mexico.

Key Projects

Cerro Prieto Open Pit Gold Mine

Cerro Prieto is Goldgroup’s established producing operation in the Cucurpe mining district of Sonora, Mexico. It’s been in production since 2013 and is augmented by a newly expanded processing capacity that has more than doubled throughput. The mine is the cornerstone of Goldgroup’s near-term growth strategy, with ongoing optimization, a planned tailings re-processing and re-leaching initiative, and multiple drill-ready targets across the property. An updated NI 43-101 resource estimate for the Esperanzas deposit further reinforces the reliability of the mineralized system while underscoring the potential for continued resource growth.

Project Highlights

• Producing open-pit gold mine in Sonora with 120,000+ ounces produced since 2013
• Throughput recently doubled to 4,200+ tons per day (tpd) with installation of a second crushing circuit
• Tailings re-leaching strategy expected to add up to 9,000 oz/year over ~5 years
• Expansion plan targeting 30,000+ ounces of annual production
• Updated NI 43-101 outlines 37,209 oz measured and indicated, and 1,504 oz inferred gold resources
• Multiple exploration targets across the property, including Esperanza, Nueva Esperanza and additional zones all under definition drilling.

Pinos Gold Development Project

Pinos is a fully permitted, advanced-stage underground gold project positioned within the prolific Zacatecas mining belt. The district hosts 29 concessions over 3,816 hectares, with 52 shafts and more than 40 km of underground workings. Goldgroup’s internal roadmap outlines 12,700 oz/year of potential annual production from Pinos in a development scenario.

Project Highlights:

• Multiple high-grade veins historically mined at 30 to 50 g/t gold
• Historical measured and indicated estimate: 86,000 oz gold and 1.3 Moz silver (Candelaria Mining, 2018). Note: Historical resource only; not treated as current NI 43-101
• Metallurgical recovery of +90 percent gold via cyanide leaching and Merrill-Crowe
• Fully permitted for mine construction

Goldgroup plans to launch targeted exploration and resource-definition drilling at Pinos, followed by an updated economic study (PEA or PFS) that will guide a production decision for this fully permitted high-grade project.

San Francisco Open Pit Gold Mine

The San Francisco mine is a past-producing, large-scale open-pit gold operation in Sonora with extensive existing infrastructure and significant resource and exploration upside. Goldgroup has acquired the majority of creditor debt connected to the mine, enabling it to control the restructuring process and advance toward full ownership pending final court approval. With historical production of approximately 1.3 million ounces and strong metallurgical recoveries, San Francisco presents a near-term opportunity for Goldgroup to restore a proven gold mine to production and add meaningful scale to its growth profile.

Project Highlights:

• Large-scale past producer with ~1.3 million ounces of gold produced from 2010 to 2019
• Strong existing infrastructure: grid power, wells, ADR plants, assay lab, haul roads
• High processing capacity of 16,875 tpd via two parallel crushing circuits
• Good metallurgical recoveries ranging from 77 percent to 90 percent
• Multiple new high-grade zones identified behind and below pit walls
• Restart plan underway, including drilling to upgrade resources and update the mine plan

Management Team

Ralph Shearing – Chief Executive Officer

A professional geologist with nearly four decades of experience in mining and exploration, Ralph Shearing founded and led Luca Mining Corp, where he oversaw major development milestones such as the exploration, initial development construction and pre-production of the Tahuehueto gold mine, the acquisition and successful restart of production of the Campo Morado zinc poly-metalic mine in Mexico.

Anthony Balic – Chief Financial Officer & Director

Previously the director of finance for Goldgroup, Anthony Balic has extensive experience in mining finance, including senior roles at Deloitte LLP specializing in assurance and advisory for mining companies. He oversees corporate finance, accounting and capital strategy for Goldgroup.

Corry Silbernagel – Director

Corry Silbernagel is a veteran financial and technical specialist with experience across mining and energy. He is the former CFO of Cabo Drilling and project manager for large-scale initiatives at Suncor and TransAlta. Silbernagel brings expertise in strategic finance, project development and operational oversight.

Blair Jordan – Director

Blair Jordan is managing partner at Restructure Advisors, with deep experience in corporate restructuring, turnaround strategies and investment banking. He held CFO and interim CEO roles in multiple public companies, and is the former managing director at Echelon Wealth Partners.

Roberto Guzman – Director

Roberto Guzman is a finance leader with more than 25 years of experience in Mexico’s financial sector. Jordan holds an advanced degree in finance from Universidad Tecnologica de Mexico and has served as finance manager for numerous public and private Mexican companies.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$85,482.46, down by 6.4 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 1, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin marked its largest single-day decline in a month, continuing a sell-off that started in November.

This sharp downturn was influenced largely by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December meeting, which triggered a surge in Japanese bond yields, strengthening the yen and prompting global investors to pull capital from risk assets like Bitcoin. This caused liquidations of speculative long positions and created downward price pressure.

However, significant technical support levels lie around US$86,000 to US$79,600, with further downside possible to US$67,700 and major support between US$45,000 and US$70,000 if bearish momentum persists. Holding above roughly US$85,200 is critical to avoid deeper bearish territory.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange VALR, added that concerns about MSCI potentially excluding major crypto-holding companies such as Strategy from global indices are adding pressure through expected forced sell-offs, further weakening market structure and liquidity.

“The recovery of the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin in particular, after the decline of the last month and a half, will take some time. The main questions at the moment are how the market will close out this year and whether Bitcoin will recover above $100,000 in December.”

Ether (ETH) also experienced a steep decline, priced at US$2,757.79, down by 8.9 percent over 24 hours.

Derivatives data

Derivatives data showed US$10.93 million liquidated in BTC shorts positions over the final four hours of trading, indicating short sellers getting squeezed out as price stabilized rather than accelerating lower.

Open interest edged up 0.50 percent to US$57.63 billion, showing fresh positions entering despite the dip, which often signals sustained trader interest and potential stabilization or rebound setup.

A funding rate of -0.001 percent reflects mild bearish sentiment, common in corrections but not extreme enough to indicate panic selling. BTC’s RSI at 32.58 marks deeply oversold territory, suggesting selling may be nearing a climax and creating conditions for a short-term bounce if support holds.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.02, down by eight percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$124.54, down by 9.3 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin’s weekend slide wipes out US$637 million in leveraged positions

Bitcoin’s latest downturn over the weekend triggered a wave of liquidations that erased roughly US$637 million across futures markets.

The selloff pushed Bitcoin to an intraday low near US$85,700, extending its monthly decline past 21 percent and dragging Ethereum, XRP, and other majors sharply lower. The slump began as momentum-driven selling forced heavily leveraged longs to unwind, turning a routine correction into a fast, disorderly slide.

Comments from Strategy CEO Phong Le about potentially selling part of the company’s sizable Bitcoin holdings added to jitters, even though prediction markets continue to see a low probability of actual disposals this year.

“We can sell Bitcoin, and we would sell Bitcoin if needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Le said in a podcast.

The company currently controls 649,870 BTC, which valued at about US$56.26 billion at current prices.

Further, China’s central bank reiterating its hard line against crypto activity further weighed on sentiment heading into the final month of the year.

Goldman Sachs boosts ETF offerings with Innovator Capital acquisition

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has agreed to buy Innovator Capital Management, a company specializing in defined outcome ETFs, in a deal worth about US$2 billion in cash and stock, according to a Monday announcement.

Defined outcome ETFs are special funds that limit losses or cap gains for investors using options contracts.

Innovator’s US$28 billion in assets and 159 ETFs will significantly enhance Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s ETF portfolio, increasing that bank’s total ETF lineup from US$51 billion to US$79 billion.

The acquisition payment partly depends on Innovator meeting certain performance targets after the deal closes, which were not publicly disclosed. The deal is expected to close in Q2 2026, subject to regulatory approval and other usual conditions.

Goldman Sachs will fully own the Innovator business, integrating its 60-plus employees into Goldman’s teams. However, Innovator’s investment managers and services will remain unchanged.

Tether blasts S&P after fresh downgrade

Tether pushed back forcefully this week after S&P Global cut its assessment of USDT’s peg stability, assigning the stablecoin the lowest score on the agency’s scale.

S&P pointed to weaker reserve quality, shrinking cash-equivalent holdings, and rising exposure to secured loans and Bitcoin as reasons for the downgrade.

The report noted that Tether’s Bitcoin holdings now exceed the cushion meant to absorb volatility, increasing the risk that a sharp price drop could leave the token undercollateralized.

Tether’s leadership dismissed the rating as biased and politically motivated.

‘Some influencers are either bad at math or have the incentive to push our competitors,’ Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a recent post on X.

After the downgrade last week, Ardoino also maintained that ‘the traditional finance propaganda machine is growing worried when any company tries to defy the force of gravity of the broken financial system.’

The downgrade also comes as Tether’s mining affiliate winds down operations in Uruguay after months of unpaid power bills and stalled expansion plans.

Japan prepares 20 percent flat tax on crypto gains

Japan is moving toward a flat 20 percent tax on cryptocurrency gains, a change that would replace the current progressive regime that can push rates above 50 percent for active traders.

Nikkei Asia reported that under the proposal, crypto income would be placed into a separate category similar to equities, with the goal of reducing distortions that discourage trading or push users offshore.

Lawmakers backing the plan say aligning digital assets with other investment products could draw liquidity back to domestic exchanges and boost overall tax receipts.

The reform is expected to be finalized as part of the country’s 2026 tax framework, with revenue split between the national and local governments.

Goldgroup Mining (TSXV:GGA, OTC:GGAZF) is a Canadian gold company advancing a portfolio of high-quality producing and development assets in Mexico. With 100 percent ownership of Cerro Prieto, Pinos and the newly acquired San Francisco mine, the company is positioned for disciplined, near-term production growth.

Goldgroup’s strategy is clear: optimize and expand production at its flagship Cerro Prieto mine, advance Pinos toward a production decision, and restart the large-scale San Francisco mine. Together, these projects target over 100,000 ounces of annual production, with additional upside from exploration, resource growth, and future acquisitions.

The company is led by an experienced team with deep expertise in developing and optimizing Mexican mines. Backed by strong financial support from the Calu Group and Luca Mining founders, Goldgroup benefits from a proven track record in value creation through mine development, operational turnarounds, and strategic M&A.

Company Highlights

• Two operating or near-term production gold assets in Mexico, 100-percent-owned and fully permitted.
• Cerro Prieto expansion completed, increasing from ~12,500 oz/year to 30,000+ oz/year during 2026 and beyond, including tailings re-processing.
• Its second asset, Pinos, is a fully permitted high-grade underground development project with historical resources and +90 percent metallurgical recoveries.
• San Francisco acquisition in progress, a past producer capable of ~40,000 oz/year with significant exploration upside.
• Aggressive M&A strategy aimed at fast-tracking Goldgroup into the mid-tier producer category with advanced due diligence nearing completion. .
• Backed by the Calu Group and the founders of Luca Mining, bringing extensive operational and financing expertise in Mexico.

This GoldGroup Mining profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

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