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NextSource Materials is an emerging leader in the global battery materials sector, backed by a world-class graphite resource and proven technology to produce high-performance anode material. With a focus on full vertical integration, the company is strategically positioned to supply critical materials essential to the global clean energy transition.

Overview

NextSource Materials (TSX:NEXT, OTCQB:NSRCF) is a Canadian-based battery materials development company focused on becoming a vertically integrated global supplier of critical minerals essential to the global clean energy transition. The company’s strategy spans the full value chain – from mining and upgrading high-quality flake graphite to producing advanced battery anode materials – positioning it as a key supplier to the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) and renewable energy storage markets.

NextSource’s core asset is the Molo graphite mine in Madagascar, one of the largest and highest-grade flake graphite deposits in the world. Commencing production in October 2024, the Molo mine has a resource base of more than 153 million tonnes and the exclusive source of NextSource’s trademarked SuperFlake® graphite.

Complementing the Molo graphite mine is the company’s downstream expansion through battery anode facilities (BAFs), which will convert its proprietary SuperFlake® graphite into spherical purified graphite (SPG) and coated SPG (CSPG), enabling direct supply to global battery and automotive manufacturers outside traditional Asian supply chains.

Global demand for flake graphite, valued at US$3.12 billion in 2024, is forecast to grow to US$5.48 billion by 2034, driven by a 6.1 percent CAGR. This growth is primarily fueled by the expansion of lithium-ion battery manufacturing for EVs and renewable energy systems, where graphite remains the dominant material used in battery anodes.

NextSource also owns the Green Giant vanadium project, an advanced-stage and strategically significant vanadium asset located near the Molo mine. With a large, sediment-hosted deposit suited for vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), Green Giant provides additional exposure to the grid-scale energy storage market – a rapidly emerging segment of the clean energy landscape.

NextSource has assembled an impressive leadership team with a proven track record in mine operations and building shareholder value. With long-term offtake agreements in place, a scalable mine-to-anode business model, and strategic backing from Vision Blue Resources, led by former Xstrata CEO Sir Mick Davis, NextSource is positioned to deliver significant value as a secure and sustainable supplier of critical battery materials.

Company Highlights

• Molo Graphite Project: The Molo graphite project in Madagascar is among the world’s largest and highest-quality graphite resources and is the exclusive source of SuperFlake® graphite.
• First Commercial Shipments Completed: SuperFlake® shipments have been to multiple end-users and approved for high-demand applications for flake graphite, including battery anodes, refractory and graphite foils for fire retardants and consumer electronics.

• Long-term Offtake Agreements: One of the few graphite producers globally to secure long-term sales agreements with tier one partners, including a 20,000 tpa agreement with a leading Japanese trader that supplies intermediate anode material to the Japanese market, and a 35,000 tpa agreement with thyssenkrupp Materials Trading GmbH for SuperFlake® graphite concentrate.
• Mine Expansion Planned: With anticipated volume demands expected to quickly outgrow its Phase 1 volume capacity, NextSource updated its operational strategy to utilize Phase 1 for campaign production to focus on development of its Phase 2 mine expansion.
• Downstream Value-add Expansion: The company is executing a phased rollout of battery anode facilities to produce spherical purified graphite and coated SPG at commercial scale. These facilities will supply high-performance anode material directly to battery and automotive manufacturers outside traditional Asian supply chains.

• Strategic Shareholder Support: Vision Blue Resources, a battery materials investment fund led by former Xstrata CEO Sir Mick Davis, is NextSource’s corner-stone shareholder. Sir Mick Davis also serves as NextSource’s chairman, bringing decades of mine development and operational leadership to the company.
• Vanadium Exposure: NextSource also holds the Green Giant vanadium project in Madagascar, an advanced-stage NI 43-101 resource and one of the world’s largest known sedimentary vanadium (V2O5) deposits.

Key Projects

Molo Graphite Mine and Project

NextSource’s flagship Molo graphite project ranks as one of the largest-known and highest-quality flake graphite deposits in the world. The property spans more than 62.5 hectares, sits in the Tulear region of Southwestern Madagascar, and is located 11.5 kilometers east of the town of Fotadrevo. Phase 1 of the mine is currently in operation.

NextSource has superior flake size distribution and well above the global average. The Molo asset is relatively unique for having almost 50 percent premium-priced large and jumbo flake graphite and can achieve up to 97 percent carbon purity with simple flotation alone. Molo SuperFlake® has been verified by end-users and meets or exceeds all criteria for the top demand markets for flake graphite; anode material for lithium-ion batteries, refractories, graphite foils and graphene inks.

Project Highlights

Geological and Resource Overview:

• Measured and indicated resources: 100.37 million tonnes (Mt) at 6.3 percent total graphitic carbon (C), based on a 2 percent C cut-off.
• Proven and probable reserves: 53.75 Mt at 6.2 percent C, based on a 3 percent C cut-off, including 21.33 Mt proven and 32.41 Mt probable.
• Over 300 km of continuous surface graphite mineralization has been delineated, enabling flexible, demand-driven production scale-up.
• The resource base supports more than 100 years of mine life at 17,000 tpa and 25+ years at 150,000 tpa production levels.

Operational Status:

• Phase 1 operations commenced production in October 2024, with the first commercial shipments of SuperFlake® graphite concentrate delivered to customers in Germany and the US in early 2025.
• In May 2025, NextSource transitioned Phase 1 to campaign production in order to preserve capital and prioritize the larger Phase 2 expansion, which is now the operational focus.
• Nameplate capacity for Phase 1 is 17,000 tpa, with modular Phase 2 plans targeting up to 150,000 tpa production capacity.

Strategic Sales Agreements:

• A 20,000 tpa agreement with a leading Japanese trader that supplies anode material to major OEM supply chains (Tesla, Toyota).

Battery Anode Facilities

NextSource’s BAFs are value-added processing plants designed to convert smaller flake graphite into high-performance anode material, an essential component of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

Project Highlights

Technology and Product Focus:

• Using a proprietary and proven processing technology, licensed exclusively by NextSource and currently supplying major OEMs, the BAFs will produce spherical purified graphite (SPG) and coated SPG (CSPG) through a process verified within, and currently being used by, the Tesla and Toyota supply chains.
• The CSPG production process involves micronizing flake graphite, shaping it into spheres (spheroidization), purifying it and applying a hard carbon coating to enhance durability and performance in battery applications.

Pilot to Commercial Progression:

• A pilot BAF in Mauritius successfully validated NextSource’s processing technology and facilitated advanced product qualification with Tier 1 EV and battery manufacturers.
• In 2025, the company redirected its BAF expansion focus from Mauritius to the Middle East, identifying Saudi Arabia and the UAE as ideal first locations due to favorable permitting, infrastructure, and access to global EV markets.

Strategic Plans and Economic Advantages:

• NextSource’s established technical process gives it a competitive advantage by significantly reducing the time and cost required for R&D and qualification phases.
• The modular BAF rollout strategy supports flexible scaling, with additional facilities planned for North America, Europe, and Asia to meet growing OEM demand.
• Feedstock will be sourced primarily from the Molo Mine, with provisions for qualified third-party graphite as needed.

Green Giant Vanadium Project

The Green Giant vanadium project is a 100-percent-owned, advanced-stage exploration asset located in south-central Madagascar, approximately 15 kilometers from the Molo Graphite Mine. It is one of the world’s largest known vanadium deposits and a potential future growth driver for NextSource.

Project Highlights

Resource Profile:

• NI 43-101 compliant resource of approximately 60 million tonnes, grading an average of 0.7 percent vanadium pentoxide at a 0.5 percent cut-off.
• The deposit is sediment-hosted, a rare geological profile seen in only about 5% of vanadium occurrences, and favorable for producing high-purity vanadium compounds.

Strategic Importance:

• Vanadium is a key material in vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), which are emerging as a critical solution for long-duration grid-scale energy storage—a necessary component of the transition to renewable power.
• With increasing global focus on decarbonizing power systems, Green Giant provides long-term optionality in a growing adjacent market.

Development Status:

• Over US$20 million has been invested in exploration and development since acquisition in 2007.
• While currently on hold to maintain focus on graphite and anode material commercialization, the project remains a strategic asset for future energy storage market expansion.

Management Team

Hanré Rossouw – President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

Hanré Rossouw joins NextSource from his role as executive director and chief financial officer of Sasol Limited with extensive experience in the global natural resources industry over the last 25 years. A British and South African national, Rossouw has held senior positions in leading global mining and investment companies where his roles involved business development, M&A, capital markets, asset management and growth optimization.

Craig Scherba – Chief Development Officer, Director

Craig Scherba brings extensive operational and geologic experience, having discovered both the Molo and Green Giant deposits. He currently heads up development of NextSource’s downstream OEM offtake strategy and plans.

Jaco Crouse – Chief Financial Officer

Jaco Crouse brings over 20 years of experience in the global natural resources sector, with expertise in M&A, capital markets and financial strategy. He held senior positions at Glencore and Xstrata.

Brent Nykoliation – EVP, Strategy and Corporate Affairs

Brent Nykoliation joined the senior management team at NextSource Materials as vice-president in 2007 and leads strategy and corporate affairs for the company. In addition, he oversees all communications with graphite customers, institutional investors and analysts for the company.

He brings over 20 years of senior management experience, having held marketing and strategic development positions with several Fortune 500 corporations in Canada.

Dr. Tilo Hauke – EVP, Downstream Operations

Dr. Tilo Hauke leads the development of the company’s BAFs, focused on producing commercial-scale graphite anode material for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. He previously spent two decades at SGL Carbon SE, a global leader in carbon and graphite products, holding senior roles including SVP of Fuel Cell Components and Group VP of Technology and Innovation.

Danniel Stokes – VP, Special Projects

Daniel Stokes spearheads the project management aspects of the company, with significant experience across a diverse portfolio of projects in mining, infrastructure and nuclear industries.

Markus Reichardt – VP, Sustainability

Markus Reichardt is responsible for driving the company’s safety, health, environment, social, climate change and quality performance and initiatives. He has a 25-year track record in operational, senior corporate and advisory roles in the resources, agricultural and renewables sectors across the developing world.

Jean Luc Marquetoux – Country Manager

Jean Luc Marquetoux brings nearly three decades of experience in mining and project development in Madagascar and brings deep regional and governmental expertise in Madagascar.

Board of Directors

Sir Mick Davis – Chairman

Sir Mick Davis is the CEO of Vision Blue Resources and a highly successful mining executive accredited with building Xstrata plc into one of the largest mining companies in the world before its acquisition by Glencore plc.

Ian Pearce – Director

Ian Pearce is the former CEO of Xstrata Nickel, and was the former COO of Falconbridge Limited, which was acquired by Xstrata Plc in 2006. Xstrata Plc’s acquisition of Falconbridge was one of the largest mining takeovers globally and one of the largest takeover bids in Canadian history.

Brett Whalen — Director

Brett Whalen has over 20 years of investment banking and M&A expertise, spending over 16 of those years at Dundee Corporation. During his tenure at Dundee, Whalen was directly involved in completing approximately $2 billion in M&A deals and helped raise over $10 billion in capital for resource sector companies.

Christopher Kruba – Director

Christopher Kruba is vice-president and legal counsel to Nostrum Capital Corporation and several related corporations that are part of the Toldo Group.

Martina Buchhauser – Director

Martina Buchhauser is a globally recognized leader in the automotive industry, with deep expertise in sustainable mobility and the transition to low-carbon, responsible business practices. Her executive career includes senior roles in global procurement and supply chain management at General Motors, MAN, BMW, and most recently Volvo Cars.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, equity markets were positive this week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 0.29 percent to close at 27,494.35 on Friday, setting a new all-time high, while the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) rose 0.55 percent to 801.13. The CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) was the largest gainer, jumping 3.87 percent to 132.89.

As for US equity markets, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) gained 1.18 percent to 6,388.65 and the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) climbed 0.62 percent to 23,285.57, with both closing the week setting new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rose 0.74 percent to 44,901.93, closing in on its record of 45,014 set on December 4, 2024.

In precious metals, the gold price was flat, ending the week down slightly at US$3,337.31 by Friday at 4 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the silver price continued to trade near 11-year highs mid-week, but fell to finish the week flat at US$38.15 per ounce.

In base metals, copper posted a 3.93 percent gain, trading near all time highs at US$5.82 per pound. The S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) registered a 0.75 percent loss to finish the week at 545.08

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.

1. St. Augustine Gold and Copper (TSX:SAU)

Weekly gain: 66.67 percent
Market cap: C$414.68 million
Share price: C$0.5

St. Augustine Gold and Copper is a development company focused on its King-king copper-gold project in the Philippines’ Davao de Oro province. The project consists of 184 mining claims.

According to the latest preliminary economic assessment from 2013, the company projects an after-tax net present value of US$1.78 billion, with an internal rate of return of 24 percent and a payback period of 2.4 years using a base case scenario of a copper price of US$3.00 per pound and a gold price of US$1,250 per ounce.

The company is currently working toward an update to the study.

On May 30, St. Augustine announced that it had entered into an agreement with the National Development Corporation (Nadecor) to acquire a 100 percent interest in Nadecor’s wholly owned subsidiary Kingking Milling, which holds the development rights to King-king.

Under the terms of the deal, Nadecor will receive C$9.02 million convertible into 185 million shares.

The project’s exploration and development permits are held by Kingking Mining, which remains a 40/40/20 joint venture between St. Augustine, Nadecor and Queensberry Mining and Development. The release also includes details of new ore sales and royalty agreements between Kingking Milling and Kingking Mining.

The company announced its latest news on Friday, reporting that it had closed a private placement, raising gross proceeds of C$24.9 million. In the announcement, the company said it intends to use the funds to advance development at King-king.

Additionally, the company reported on Thursday that Nicolaos Paraskevas and Andrew J. Russell had joined the board of directors. It notes that Paraskevas has experience in supervising business development activities in the copper industry, while Russell is one of the original founders of St. Augustine and brings two decades of experience in mining management. The announcement also reported that Love D. Manigsaca had been appointed as St. Augustine’s new CFO.

2. Kapa Gold (TSXV:KAPA)

Weekly gain: 62.12 percent
Market cap: C$19.66 million
Share price: C$0.30

Kapa Gold is an exploration company focused on advancing the past-producing Blackhawk gold mine in San Bernardino County, California.

The project site is composed of seven patented and 178 contiguous federal lode claims covering 1,496.2 hectares. The property hosts multiple mineralized zones with previous exploration work revealing deposits with high grade gold, silver, lead and zinc. Historic production from ramps and underground mines has graded an average 10 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold.

Kapa’s most recent news from the project was reported on March 5, when it announced it had initiated biological surveys in advance of exploration activities on the site and submitted the requested bonding to San Bernardino County, allowing for drilling on patented claims at Blackhawk.

3. North Peak Resources (TSXV:NPR)

Weekly gain: 47.3 percent
Market cap: C$47.28 million
Share price: C$1.09

North Peak Resources is an exploration company working to advance its Prospect Mountain Mine Complex in Central Nevada, US.

The property comprises 221.9 acres of patented claims and 1,905 acres of unpatented claims, consolidating several historical mines that have hosted operations dating back to the 1870s.

Despite the extensive history of the property, limited modern exploration work has been conducted, and a technical report from April 2023 notes that no mineral resource estimate has been produced. Part of the property is currently covered by a plan of operation that entitles North Peak to carry out surface exploration, infrastructural works and underground mining of up to 331,000 metric tons per year.

The most recent exploration update from the property was released on May 27, when North Peak announced results from samples collected from underground and surface historical occurrences. Highlights included grades of 45.6 g/t gold, 569 g/t silver, 4.09 percent lead and 3.12 percent zinc over 15 cm from channel samples of in-situ material from the Dean Cave area; and 5.3 g/t gold, 39 g/t silver, 7.03 percent lead and 1.92 percent zinc from dump grab samples collected from the Kit Carson mine.

The latest news from the company came on Monday, when North Peak announced it had acquired the remaining 20 percent stake in the property from Solarljos in exchange for 3 million common shares. North Peak purchased its original 80 percent interest in the property in August 2023.

4. NextSource Materials (TSX:NEXT)

Weekly gain: 46.15 percent
Market cap: C$92.46 million
Share price: C$0.475

NextSource Materials is a mining and exploration company focused on advancing its Molo graphite mine to Phase 2 production.

The mine is located in Southern Madagascar and has a nameplate capacity of 11,000 metric tons per year, with a fixed carbon content between 94 percent and 97 percent. The company is currently working towards a Phase 2 expansion at the mine, which will increase capacity to 150,000 metric tons per year. NextSource expects to complete an updated feasibility study for the project by the end of Q3 2025.

The company is also developing a series of battery anode facilities in key geographic locations. The facilities will be designed with modular production capacities that are intended to expand in line with automotive demand.

The most recent announcement from NextSource came on June 2, when it announced its withdrawal from its battery anode facility option in Mauritius, instead planning to develop a larger-scale facility in the Middle East, which would help streamline permitting and increase access to EV manufacturers. The company stated it is advancing discussions with EV manufacturers for potential offtake agreements.

5. BeMetals (TSXV:BMET)

Weekly gain: 44.44 percent
Market cap: C$10.3 million
Share price: C$0.065

Bemetals is a gold and copper explorer advancing its Pangeni copper project in Zambia.

The project is located in Northwestern Zambia along the western edge of the Central African Copperbelt. BeMetals has been actively exploring the property since 2020 and identified several areas with copper mineralization.

The most recent update from the property came on March 25 when the company reported that it had commenced a new 2,000 meter to 2,500 meter drilling program to identify additional zones of copper mineralization and expand the existing footprint within the D-Prospect area.

Previous exploration at the site has yielded highlighted assays with up to 0.74 percent copper and 533 parts per million (ppm) cobalt over 16.16 meters, including an intersection of 0.93 percent copper and 701 ppm cobalt over 5.5 meters.

On July 10, BeMetals announced that it had entered into a non-binding letter of intent with Prospector Metals (TSXV:PPP,OTCQB:PMCOF) to acquire up to a 100 percent stake in the Savant gold project in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. The property covers an area of 232 square kilometers and hosts numerous gold occurrences. Under the terms of the agreement, BeMetals has agreed to meet certain milestones, including the production of a mineral resource estimate.

Final ownership share will be determined by the size of the reported resource. If the reported resource is under 500,000 ounces of contained gold, Prospector will retain full ownership. If it is between 500,000 and 1 million ounces, Prospector and BeMetals will form a 50/50 joint venture. Lastly, if the resource is over 1 million ounces, with at least 500,000 ounces in the indicated category, BeMetals will earn the full 100 percent interest, with Prospector holding a 0.5 percent net smelter royalty.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Red Chris rescue: Three miners freed after 60 hours underground

Three miners trapped underground at Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) Red Chris copper-gold mine in British Columbia have been safely rescued after more than 60 hours.

The workers were sheltered in a MineARC chamber with access to food, water, and communication, following a series of rockfalls.

The rescue effort, which included drilling a 100-meter access tunnel, concluded successfully, with all miners reported in good health.

We are relieved to share that all three individuals are safe, and in good health and spirits. They had consistent access to food, water, and ventilation whilst they remained in place in a refuge chamber underground over the last two days,” a Newmont statement read. They are now being supported by medical and wellness teams. Their families have been notified.”

Investigations into the cause of the rockfalls are ongoing.

US prioritizes critical mineral recovery from mine waste

The US government is ramping up efforts to recover critical minerals from mine waste, with the Department of the Interior announcing plans to map legacy tailings across federal lands.

The initiative is part of a broader push to secure domestic supplies of essential minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths.

By tapping into existing waste sites, the US hopes to reduce reliance on foreign imports while minimizing new environmental disruptions.

“By streamlining regulations for extracting critical minerals from mine waste, we are unleashing the full potential of America’s mineral resources to bolster national security and economic growth,” said Acting Assistant Secretary of Lands and Minerals Adam Suess. “This proactive approach will attract private investment, support environmental reclamation, and pave the way for mineral independence.”

The move aligns with ongoing federal investment into clean energy and supply chain resilience.

Zijin leads bid for Barrick’s Tongon mine in West Africa

Chinese mining giant Zijin Mining Group (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,HKEX:2899,SHA:601899) is reportedly leading the race to acquire Barrick Mining’s (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) Tongon gold mine in Côte d’Ivoire.

Barrick has tapped TD Securities and Australia-based Treadstone Resource Partners to advise on the sale of Tongon. The operation produced 148,000 ounces of gold in 2024.

With resources depleting, the mine is expected to enter care and maintenance by 2027.

Sources say the bid could be valued near US$500 million as Barrick shifts its focus toward copper and lithium assets.

The potential deal signals ongoing Chinese interest in African gold assets and underscores Barrick’s strategic pivot toward energy transition materials.

No final agreement has been announced.

Panther Minerals exits Boulder Creek uranium project in Alaska

Panther Minerals (CSE:PURR,OTC:GLIOF,FWB:2BC) has officially ended its option to acquire the Boulder Creek uranium project in Alaska’s Cape Nome District.

The company chose not to proceed with its next annual payment, leading to the automatic termination of the agreement signed in April 2024.

All 140 associated mining claims have been returned to Tubutulik Mining Company LLC via a quitclaim deed.

While Panther completed preliminary assessments and a site review, it opted not to advance the project further, citing seasonal, logistical, and capital constraints.

The project had drawn criticism from local Indigenous groups concerned about environmental impacts.

Ontario adds C$7 million to Critical Minerals Innovation Fund

The Ontario government is committing over C$7 million to expand its Critical Minerals Innovation Fund (CMIF), aiming to boost research, development and commercialization across the province’s mining sector.

The new funding round—open for applications from July 23 to October 1—targets innovation in deep exploration, mineral recovery, battery supply chains and mining technologies.

This latest investment brings total CMIF funding to C$27 million since its 2022 launch, supporting more than two dozen projects to date.

The CIMF also aligns with Ontario’s broader Critical Minerals Strategy, which seeks to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign sources, especially amid growing global demand and looming US tariffs.

“With global demand for critical minerals soaring – and new US tariffs targeting Canada’s mining and manufacturing sectors – Ontario is taking action to accelerate growth and innovation in Ontario’s mining sector,’ said Stephen Lecce, Minister of Energy and Mines.

He added: “Through the Critical Minerals Innovation Fund, we are putting Ontario first, building a made-in-Canada supply chain that attracts investment and creates good-paying jobs here at home.”

Looking down the supply chain, the Ontario government is also investing C$500 million in the creation of a new Critical Minerals Processing Fund to “provide financial support for projects that accelerate the province’s critical mineral processing capacity and made-in-Ontario critical minerals supply chain.”

What moved the copper price?

Copper started the quarter in freefall.

After reaching an all-time high of US$5.22 per pound on the COMEX on March 26, the price plummeted to US$4.06 on April 8. Although it wouldn’t stay there long, by April 11, it had climbed back above US$4.50 and continued to US$4.88 on April 22.

Copper price chart, April 01 to July 23, 2025

via TradingEconomics

From the end of April, all of May and much of June, the copper price was volatile but range-bound, trading between US$4.50 and US$4.80.

However, the end of June saw a surge in momentum in the market, as the price began to climb, and on June 30, it reached US$4.97 per pound.

Since then, the price has soared. Setting a new all-time high of US$5.65 per pound on July 10.

Supply and demand by the numbers

Over the past few years, a growing imbalance has developed in the copper market, as demand growth has outpaced the expansion of primary and secondary supply lines.

According to a June 24 press release, data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed a 3.2 percent growth in refined production, with a combined gain of 4.8 percent from China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the two largest producers globally. Further increases came from Asia, where output was 3.5 percent higher.

The increased levels were offset by Chile, where smelter output fell 9.5 percent, due to smelter maintenance shutdowns.

However, the refined production outpaced mining production, which rose just 2 percent during the period. Peru accounted for a 5 percent year-over-year growth due to increased output at MMG’s (OTC Pink:MMLTF) Las Bambas, Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTC Pink:AAUKF,OTC:NGLOY) and Mitsubishi’s (OTC Pink:MIMTF) Quellaveco and Chinalco Mining’s (OTC Pink:ALMMF) Toromocho mines.

Likewise, production in DRC surged by 8 percent, attributable to the expansion of the Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTC:IVPAF) and Zijin Mining’s (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,HKEX:2899,SHA:601899) joint venture Kamoa-Kakula mine.

Demand continued to grow at a higher rate than refined output during the first quarter of 2025, with the ICSG suggesting a 3.3 percent increase in copper usage.

The largest segment came from Chinese markets, which required 6 percent more copper than in 2024, but this demand occurred during an 11 percent decline in net refined imports into the country. China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 58 percent of global demand.

Outside of China, demand was essentially flat, with high demand from Asian, Middle Eastern and North African countries being offset by weak demand in Europe and North America.

Overall, the data provided by the ICSG indicated a 233,000 metric ton surplus of refined copper through the first four months of 2025, a slight decrease from the 236,000 metric tons during the same period in 2024.

Outside the numbers

“Yes, we believe we have moved into a supply deficit in 2025 and that the market is currently in deficit. Uncertainties in the financial markets (trade, growth and inflation) have had a negative impact on copper demand, but this has been offset as copper is becoming less tied to global economic growth and more tied to industries that provide structural growth to the market,” he said.

White went on to explain that AI data centers, emerging economies and the energy transition are all putting increased stress on copper supply.

Furthermore, the supply outlook was not expected to keep pace with demand this year. Q1 2025 mined copper production has indicated low production, and the copper supply outlook for this year has already worsened with the first major disruption of the year,” he added.

The shutdown referred to by White was at the Ivanhoe-Zijin Kakula-Kamoa mine in the DRC.

Ivanhoe reported a temporary interruption of underground mining at the Kakula mine on May 2. The company cited seismic activity and initiated a partial shutdown of operations at phase 1 and 2 concentrators, utilizing surface stockpiles.

Operations at the mine were suspended until June 11, when the company announced it had initiated a restart. It also stated that it was slashing production guidance by 28 percent due to the impact, with the revised number falling between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tons, down from the previous range of 520,000 to 580,000 set in January.

The difference in guidance accounts for more than half of the projected surplus in the ICSG report, demonstrating just how tight the copper market has become.

The Trump effect

Volatility has been present since the start of the year, with much of it attributed to uncertainty stemming from an ever-shifting US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

Commodity prices plummeted at the start of the second quarter, with copper losing 22 percent between its quarterly high of US$5.22 on March 26 and April 8, when it fell to US$4.06.

The drop came alongside the fallout from the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump announced on April 2, which applied a 10 percent baseline tariff to imports into the United States from all but a handful of countries. It also threatened the imposition of more significant retaliatory tariffs to take effect on April 9.

Additionally, the United States initiated a tit-for-tat tariff war with China in early April, starting with a 34 percent tariff on Chinese imports, which quickly rose to 145 percent on Chinese imports and 125 percent on US exports to China.

The effect of the tariffs caused significant declines in major US indices, with the Dow losing 9.5 percent, the S&P 500 shedding 10 percent, and the Nasdaq losing 11 percent in two days. More than $6 trillion was wiped from the markets over two days, the most significant such loss in history.

More importantly, the uncertainty seeped into the US bond markets, causing yields on the 10-year Treasury to rise sharply to 4.49 percent as investors began to dump US bonds. The rising rates came as China and Japan both sold holdings back into the market in an attempt to counter Trump’s trade plans.

The combined effect led analysts to suggest that a recession was imminent, prompting broad sell-offs in the commodity markets as traders worked to dispose of stockpiles of high-value inventories.

Copper is susceptible to recessions due to its wide range of applications, which are heavily dependent on consumer spending.

Ultimately, a sliding stock market and spiking bond yields prompted Trump to announce a 90-day pause on the retaliatory tariffs, stating that it would allow countries to come to the table and negotiate a deal with the United States.

Although the rout of the copper market was short-lived, it demonstrated the push-pull that tariffs and trade policy can have on copper prices.

In February, Trump signed an executive order which invoked section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms of national security.

In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.

“The supply and demand imbalance has recently been catalyzed with the US trade actions, where copper stocks have moved into the US on speculation that the Section 232 investigation into copper may result in a copper tariff,” White said.

He explained that the global inventory system has become fragmented. With the supply deficit, it has become increasingly difficult to source physical copper, resulting in drastically lower inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

The administration reached a decision early in the third quarter, and on July 8, Donald Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on all copper entering the United States.

The move caused prices on the COMEX to spike to record highs, triggering more panic buying among traders as they raced to transfer above-ground copper stocks into US-based facilities to avoid the additional tariff costs.

While ICSG hasn’t published numbers since May, it was already demonstrating then that significant stockpiles were being moved between international warehouses and the US. It reported that stocks at the LME had declined 122,900 metric tons from the start of the year, while stocks at the COMEX and SHFE had both posted gains of 80,970 metric tons and 31,619 metric tons, respectively.

“Copper is globally fungible. It’s like oil. The sanctions don’t work on Russian oil or Iranian oil, because it just flows around. Copper can do that, too. So it’s incorrect to think that a copper tariff, therefore, copper is up, and all copper stocks have to go up. If you’re a copper miner in Chile selling to China, then the US tariff has no direct bearing on your business whatsoever,” he said.

Tigre also explained that the US imports 50 percent of its copper needs, and there is no way that tariffs are going to fix that overnight.

“The mines just aren’t there. The help he’s (Trump) provided with permitting is highly relevant, and it has already helped; that’s okay. You get the permits, and then you have to build the mine, right? So it’ll be years before the incentives create more US production. Meanwhile, it’s Dr. Copper. It goes in everything, so consumers, manufacturers, everybody’s got this added cost,” he said.

Where does copper go next?

Beyond the tariffs, the fundamentals remain, as Tigre pointed out, the world is dependent on copper and demand for the red metal has been increasing faster than supply.

“There aren’t enough copper projects on the pipeline, not ones big enough to matter. So I’m extremely bullish on copper. All those reasons to be bullish on copper are still on the table in front of us, and when I first made the call, copper was around four bucks or something, and now, if we’re going there at five, almost six, and all that tailwind is stil to come and push it higher,” Tigre said.

While he remained positive on copper’s long-term outlook, he declined to say where the price would end up at the end of the year.

Even though copper may be one of the safer commodity bets owing to its staggering demand and low supply, investors should keep in mind the broad economic landscape when entering into a position with a metal that can change quickly with consumer spending.