SpaceX turns heads ahead of earnings with new mega deal

SpaceX (SPCX) just got some very good news.

The U.S. Space Force awarded the company two task orders worth a combined $1.6 billion to launch 18 Falcon 9 rockets carrying military satellites. The news was announced on July 29.

Every launch will lift off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, with all 18 due to be completed by the end of 2027.

For SPCX, the timing is important. Shares have fallen hard since the company’s June IPO, and this contract arrives days before its first earnings report as a public company.

Whether that’s enough to steady the stock is a separate question, and the answer may hinge on a date most investors are not watching.

What the SpaceX Space Force contract actually covers

According to Space Systems Command, the 18 launches will carry satellites for the Pentagon’s Space-Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, known as SBST.

SBST is a network of satellites built to detect and track fast-moving airborne threats and pass that data to U.S. forces in near real time. 

It is meant to catch what older early-warning satellites were never designed to see, including hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles.

More SpaceX Stock Coverage:

• SpaceX stock sends investors a signal they need to see
• Raymond James issues absurd price target for SpaceX stock
• HSBC starts SpaceX stock at hold with $115 price target

The satellites form the backbone of the Trump administration’s proposed $185 billion “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, US News reported.

The awards came through the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 program, which lets approved companies compete for individual launches rather than locking in fixed allocations.

Why the price tag runs above SpaceX’s commercial rate

The $1.6 billion works out to roughly $89 million per launch.

That sits well above the price SpaceX charges commercial customers for a standard Falcon 9 flight, which the company lists in a range starting around $70 million.

That extra cost covers things commercial flights don’t need: security clearances, tighter mission integration, and strict rules to protect the payload.

For investors, here’s what that means. Government launches earn SpaceX more money per flight than commercial ones do. 

With 18 of them locked in through 2027, the company now has a large, steady stream of revenue it can count on.

That revenue stream matters a lot right now, because SpaceX is pouring money into AI and Starship development, and secure government cash helps fund that spending.

How SpaceX stock got here before earnings

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share in June and climbed above $201 within its first week, according to Reuters.

Since then, the stock has declined. SPCX hit an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, then fell to a low of $107.01 on July 28, a drop of about 52% from the peak.

Related: Jim Cramer reveals exactly when to buy SpaceX dip

Two forces drove the fall.

The first is valuation. SpaceX trades at about 40 times its estimated 2026 sales. That’s a steep price relative to revenue, and it leaves little room for the company to disappoint.

It is also why so many investors are betting against the stock. 

Short interest, which is the share of stock that traders have borrowed and sold in hopes of buying it back cheaper, sits at about 35% of SpaceX’s available shares.

The second is supply. Early investors have been selling, and more selling is expected soon.

The August date that matters more than earnings

SpaceX reports earnings on Aug. 4. That is the headline event, but it may not be the one that moves the stock most.

Two business days after the report, the lockup period ends for most pre-IPO investors, Morningstar reported.

A lockup is a window after an IPO when early investors cannot sell. When it lifts, nearly a billion shares can hit the market, far more than what was traded during the IPO itself.

That helps to explain why the stock declined even though SpaceX keeps landing contracts. Some investors are selling now, ahead of that wave of new shares.

The $1.6 billion deal gives buyers a reason to step in. Whether that reason outweighs a billion shares hitting the market is what the next two weeks will test.

Why SpaceX rivals could not take this contract

Two of SpaceX’s biggest rivals for national security launches can’t fly right now.

United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket has been out of service since February 2026, when a booster separation problem triggered a Space Force investigation that remains unresolved, SpaceNews reported.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn is in worse shape. Its only launch pad was destroyed in a May static-fire explosion, and the rocket will not fly again until at least the end of 2026, Spaceflight Now reported.

The Space Force raised its Phase 3 Lane 1 ceiling earlier this month by $11.4 billion, to $17 billion, to make room for more launches. 

Yet with both rivals sidelined, SpaceX is the only Western provider able to fly this many national security missions on this timeline.

The risks investors should consider

The contract is a win for SpaceX, but it does not erase the concerns hanging over the stock.

What could still go wrong for SpaceX

• Vendor concentration: SpaceX has secured at least $7 billion in Pentagon contracts this year, and some lawmakers are uneasy about the military depending so heavily on one private company.
• A punishing schedule: Fitting 18 sensitive military launches into Vandenberg’s calendar by the end of 2027 requires close to one national security launch a month, with no room for delay.
• Execution risk: A single pad accident, technical fault, or weather setback could dent SpaceX’s near-perfect launch record and pressure the stock.
• The lockup: No contract changes the fact that a large block of shares is about to become sellable.

For investors considering SPCX, the contract is a genuine business win landing on top of an unresolved supply problem. 

The deal strengthens SpaceX’s long-term outlook. But in the near term, the stock’s direction likely comes down to how many early investors sell once they’re free to.

SpaceX’s earnings on Aug. 4 will offer the first real look at the company’s numbers as a public firm, and the days right after it may reveal more about where the stock goes next.

Related: SpaceX stock defies latest Wall Street forecasts